內容概要
自從2010年中國首次進軍巴西電力行業以來，短短10年的時間通過并購和項目建設方式，中國已經從“萌新”發展成為巴西電力行業的主要參與者。截至2019年，至少有14家中國電力企業在巴西投資或參與建設項目，總價值高達365億美元。盡管到目前為止，水力發電一直是重點，但風能和太陽能發電行業前途光明。
絲路中心（BRICC）對相關報道進行轉譯，供讀者參考。
Chinese electric power corporations have been deeply integrated in Brazil's electricity sector since their first investment in the country in 2010 (Image:Alamy)
自2010年中國對巴西電力行業進行首次投資以來，中國的電力公司現如今已融入巴西的電力行業各個領域。
It took less than a decade for Chinese investors to go from the “new kids on the block” to key players in the Brazilian electricity sector, achieved through a combination of acquisitions and new projects since its first major investment in Brazil in 2010.
自從2010年中國首次進軍巴西電力行業以來，短短10年的時間通過并購和項目建設方式，中國已經從“萌新”發展成為巴西電力行業的主要參與者。
By 2019, no less than 14 Chinese electric power corporations had invested or were involved in construction projects in Brazil worth US$36.5 billion. Generation is the preferred sector and renewable sources, such as hydro and wind power, have received largest share of investments.
截至2019年，至少有14家中國電力企業在巴西投資或參與建設項目，總價值高達365億美元。電力行業是首選行業，其中水電和風電等可再生能源獲得的投資份額最大。
These are some of the findings of a new working paper published by the Boston University Global Development Policy Center (GDP Center). In it, I analyse the historical evolution, features, trends, and future opportunities of Chinese investments in Brazil’s electricity sector.
這些是波士頓大學全球發展政策中心發表的一份新工作報告中的一些發現。這篇文章分析了中國在巴西電力行業投資的歷史演變、特點、趨勢和未來的發展機會。
One major discernible trend is the fact that most Chinese companies’ installed capacity in Brazil is in renewable energy. This contrasts with the dominance of coal in their overall power generation portfolio in other countries, as the GDP Center’s China’s Global Power Database shows. The Brazilian case shows that Chinese players focus their energy investments where the host country has a natural advantage or an abundance of resources.
一個明顯的趨勢是，中國企業在巴西的投資大都集中在可再生能源領域。這與國內生產總值中心中國全球電力數據庫顯示的煤炭在其他國家發電組合中的主導地位形成了鮮明對比。巴西的情況表明，中國企業將能源投資重點放在東道國自然資源豐富的地方。
This significant amount of capital invested has allowed Chinese firms to become the leading foreign players in Brazil’s electricity sector. As of 2019, they represented 10%, 12%, and 12% of the country’s generation, transmission, and distribution segments respectively. They rank second, third, and fourth places in terms of nationalities’ percentages.
如此巨額的投資使得中國企業成為巴西電力行業的主要外國企業。截至2019年，中國分別占巴西發電、輸電和配電領域的10%、12%和12%。就國籍比例而言，他們排名第二、第三和第四。
State Grid and China Three Gorges Corporation (CTG) are the pioneering Chinese firms in Brazil, which became the destination of more than half of their overseas spending. In the generation segment, CTG is already the second largest electricity generator. Some 48% of Sao Paulo state’s hydro generation is in the hands of Chinese actors.
國家電網和中國三峽公司是中國在巴西電力行業的先驅，巴西成為其超過一半海外投資的目的地。在電力行業，中國三峽公司的發電量位居第二位。圣保羅州48%的水力發電量由中國企業提供。
Besides acquisitions of local firms, Chinese corporations were involved in new projects, such as Belo Monte dam’s giant transmission lines, built by State Grid. They are strategically relevant to Brazil’s energy security, since they help to alleviate the bottleneck between supply and demand. They also brought new, ultra-high voltage (UHV) technology to the country.
除了收購當地公司，中國公司也參與開發新項目，比如國家電網建設的貝羅蒙特大壩的巨型輸電線路。該線路緩解了電力供需之間的不平衡狀況，對巴西的能源安全具有戰略意義。除此之外，中國企業還在巴西開發和使用了新的超高壓(特高壓)技術。
Chinese electricity projects in Brazil are part of an international investment push in the sector that gained strength after the 2008 global financial crisis. Chinese firms are among the leading investors in the global power segment, usually backed by policy banks China Development Bank and the Export Import Bank of China, nowadays the world’s major provider of energy finance. Brazil is at the forefront of this global expansion as most of China’s overseas power generation assets are concentrated there.
中國在巴西的電力項目是自2008年全球金融危機后，國際投資推動該行業發展的重要部分。中國企業是全球電力領域的主要投資者之一，這些投資通常由中國國家開發銀行（China Development Bank）和中國進出口銀行（Export Import Bank of China）提供支持，后者如今是全球主要的能源融資提供機構。由于中國大部分海外發電資產都集中在巴西，巴西目前是中國全球擴張的前沿陣地。
Chinese companies will continue to be decisive players in the overall expansion of the Brazilian electricity sector for decades to come
在未來幾十年里，中國企業將繼續在巴西電力行業的整體擴張中發揮決定性作用。
There are multiple reasons for this preference. Among them, Brazil’s still vast untapped energy resources offer a land of business opportunities. The country is the world’s third most attractive country for foreign direct investment in renewables, one position above China, according to Bloomberg NEF. Furthermore, in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, international investors suffered from debt crises and liquidity shortages. Several North American and European companies sold their overseas subsidiaries, some were acquired by Chinese counterparts.
巴西能夠大量吸引外資有其獨特的優勢。巴西仍有大量未開發的能源資源，商業前景巨大。根據彭博新能源財經(Bloomberg NEF)的數據，巴西是世界上對可再生能源外國直接投資最具吸引力的第三大國家，排在中國之前一位。此外，在2008年金融危機之后，國際投資者遭受了債務危機和流動性短缺。幾家北美和歐洲公司出售了它們的海外子公司，其中一些被中國同行收購。
Brazil also suffered the impact of the global downturn and experienced deteriorating macroeconomic conditions from 2013 onwards. The outbreak of a corruption scandal in 2014 has weakened several national concessionaires, and some needed to disinvest energy assets. One example is major Brazilian electricity company CPFL, bought by State Grid.
巴西也受到了全球經濟衰退的影響，2013年以來宏觀經濟狀況不斷惡化。2014年爆發的腐敗丑聞削弱了幾家國家特許經營企業的實力，其中一些企業需要減少對能源資產的投資。被國家電網收購的巴西大型電力公司CPFL就是其中一個例子。
Chinese electric investments in Brazil are also part of an ongoing trend of the country’s power firms buying energy assets across Latin America, whose countries, equally, have undergone economic crises in recent years. This scenario has offered a business opportunity not only to acquire energy assets, but also to export services and further develop native Chinese technologies, such as UHV transmission.
中國在巴西的電力投資只是國家電力公司在拉美各地收購能源資產的一部分。拉美國家近年來同樣經歷了經濟危機，這給中國公司提供了難得的商業機會，中國企業不僅可以通過收購能源資產，還可以通過出口服務和進一步開發中國本土技術（如特高壓輸電）來進行投資。
In 2019, roughly half of Chinese M&A activity in Latin American and the Caribbean was in the electricity sector, according to the GDP Center’s China-Latin America Economic Bulletin. Renewable energy projects received most of the funds, and Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Mexico were among the top recipient countries. Standout deals include State Grid’s recent purchase of the Chilean power distributor CGE and the sale of Zuma Energia, Mexico’s largest renewable energy company, to State Power Investment Corp.
GDP中心的《中國-拉美經濟公報》顯示，2019年，中國在拉美和加勒比地區的并購活動約有一半集中在電力行業。可再生能源項目獲得了量的資金，巴西、智利、秘魯和墨西哥是最大的外商投資國。其中比較引人關注的交易包括國家電網最近收購智利電力分銷商CGE，以及國家電力投資公司收購墨西哥最大的可再生能源公司祖瑪能源。
Chinese recent investments in Brazil hint at future trends. For the first time, in 2019 wind and solar power projects received preferential treatment from Chinese investors. In a break from the past, most of this recent investment was in greenfield projects, demonstrating business choices in line with Brazilian policy incentives and a willingness to explore the country’s natural endowment.
中國近期在巴西的投資也預示了未來的發展趨勢。2019年，風能和太陽能項目的中國投資者首次獲得了的優惠待遇。與過去不同的是，近幾年的的投資大多是綠地項目，這表明中國企業的商業選擇符合巴西的政策激勵導向，也表明巴西政府愿意探索該國的自然資源。
By 2029, Brazil aims to have one-third of its added generation capacity derive from wind. As of 2019, Brazil’s installed wind capacity reached 15.4 GW. Yet recent assessments foresee that local wind generation potential would be as high as 880 GW. In the least sunny spot in Brazil, it is possible to generate more solar energy than in the sunniest place in Germany, a leading investor in solar technology. In the years to come, one might see more Chinese projects in these sources.
到2029年，巴西的目標是使其新增發電能力的三分之一來自風能。截至2019年，巴西的風電裝機容量達到了15.4GW。然而，根據最近的評估預測，當地的風力發電潛力將高達880GW。在巴西陽光最少的區域蘊含的太陽能可能比太陽能技術領域全球領先的德國陽光最充足的地方還多。在未來的幾年里，人們可能會在這些資源上看到更多的中國項目。
Given China’s appetite to explore Brazil’s rich renewable energy potential and the long-term business commitments made in the last decade, Chinese companies will continue to be decisive players in the overall expansion of the Brazilian electricity sector for decades to come. This could be a sizeable contribution to Brazil’s plans to further expand the role of renewables in its energy matrix and to foster investments in green technology.
鑒于中國對發掘巴西豐富的可再生能源的強烈興趣，以及過去10年做出的長期商業承諾，未來幾十年，中國企業將繼續在巴西電力行業整體擴張中發揮決定性作用。這可能對巴西進一步擴大可再生能源在其能源矩陣中的作用，并促進綠色技術投資的計劃做出重大貢獻。
資料來源：Diálogo Chino
